In my latest for the New lines Institute, I show how, before 2021, little to no captagon lab busts were announced outside of the established production hubs in Syria and Lebanon. By 2024, production spread throughout the region.
Yet, only Syria had industrial-scale production: The median amount per seizure plunged from roughly 650,000 pills in 2021 to under 50,000 in 2024.
New producers are likely to increase further still following the shortfall in supply created by Assad’s downfall
Smaller and mobile labs make the trade harder to track and disrupt as regional coordination becomes ever more critical.
If I had to bet on countries where industrial production could take root, I’d pick these two countries…