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Jun 20, 2022

Reflections on the Signing of the Gas Deal between Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon


A few hours ago, and after nine months of wrangling, an agreement to supply 650 million cubic meters of natural gas per year from Egypt to Lebanon via Syria was signed.


Here's what we know:

• If implemented, the deal will enable Lebanon's public sector to produce almost four more hours of electricity, compared to only two hours currently.

• A US sanctions waiver on Syria is likely to follow soon

• The gas will be sold at a discount.


Here's what we don't know:

• How much will Lebanon pay, exactly?

• What will Syria get in exchange?

• Is the gas of Israeli or Egyptian origin? (So much speculation about this.)


Two remaining obstacles to the implementation of the agreement:


1. Current posturing of US politicians suggests that the sanctions waiver is likely to be reversed following the Congressional midterm elections in November.


2. Will Lebanon agree to the demands of the World Bank, especially regarding the boosting of tariff collections? The public is already disgruntled with skyrocketing living costs, and such a move could trigger yet another round of protests.

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