Syria is about to finalize its 2021 budget. In our piece for the Atlantic Council, Will Christou and I explain what the proposed budget reveals about the economic situation in regime-held areas. http://bit.ly/36tRpPJ

For sources and calculations: http://bit.ly/2Vp2f36

The budget deficits, largely classified as “taken from reserves,” do not reveal whether the deficit will be funded by printing money, issuing bonds, or through loans from the Central Bank.

Printing more money is the most likely scenario, resulting in yet more inflation.

To prevent outright famine, the 2021 budget will focus on the immediate needs of people via social programs and subsidies. The sudden increase in the share of “current spending” also highlights Damascus’s inability to cash in on reconstruction projects.