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May 28, 2024

The Drivers of Deforestation in Syria

Two years ago, I tweeted this:


The World Bank's latest Syria Economic Monitor now presents actual estimates: "Controlling for climate conditions like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, and water satisfaction, the Difference-in-Difference (DID) regression model shows that, after the Syrian conflict, Syria’s crop yield, as proxied by remote sensing vegetation indices, averaged 8.8 to 11.5 percent lower compared to regions in Türkiye along the same border area."


Read the report, which I had the pleasure of contributing to, here.


I'll bet you don't need to see the border to know where Syria ends and Türkiye begins: The Turkish side is lush, and the Syrian side is dry. Water mismanagement and Türkiye's restrictions on water flow are the main reasons behind the drought in Syria, not natural/cyclical factors.

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