Karam Shaar Advisory LTD

Captagon Trade After Assad: Threat Transformed, Not Ended

Read my latest with Roaa Obaid on the captagon threat after Assad’s downfall for the New lines Institute

• 200M pills seized in 4 months after Assad’s fall vs 10M throughout 2024.

• The HTS‑led interim gov under Al‑Sharaa has launched high‑profile busts & pledged a zero‑tolerance narcotics policy.

• Yet no producers or smugglers arrested → supply chains & expertise still intact.

• Expect fragmentation: rogue labs, rising prices, spillover, and potential methamphetamine substitution.

• The captagon threat is far from over, but it’s transforming considerably.

• Helping the Syrian state combat the threat should be a top priority.

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