Six months after Assad’s fall, public electricity output remains stuck at 1,600 MW, a fraction of the pre-war level. But recent deals and sanctions relief are setting the stage for a turnaround. Key developments:
• Sanctions lifting can potentially kickstart reconstruction and investment
• New gas agreements with Qatar and Türkiye could double output to 3,200 MW
• A $7B MoU with UCC, Kalyon, Cengiz Enerji and Power International targets 5,000 MW in new generation
However, challenges persist:
• Daily fuel shortfalls of over 7.5 million cmd based on our calculations
• Grid losses exceed 30%, with theft and degradation undermining transmission
• Corruption concerns surrounding UCC’s leadership and may damage public trust
Could this moment mark the start of genuine progress?