North-West Syria: Potential Scenarios

Operations and Policy Center (Scenario analysis tool), Dr Karam Shaar, 24 Mar 2021

​Despite the Russian and Turkish de-escalation and ceasefire agreements, the Assad regime continues to attack NW Syria, especially areas to the south of the M4. Here Dr Karam Shaar maps out potential military conflict scenarios for the near-term future of NW Syria, in light of the volatile Turkish-Russian dynamics.

Inside Syria's Clapping Chamber: Dynamics of the 2020 Parliamentary Elections

Middle East Institute (Research Tool), Dr Karam Shaar and Samy Akil, 14 Jan 2021

The composition of Syria's parliament matters not because it influences the policies of the autocratic country, but because it provides an excellent lens through which we can understand the patronage and clientele networks of al-Assad regime. Dr Karam Shaar and Sami Akil wrote this study on Syria's 2020 parliamentary elections, published in the Middle East Institute. Using various sources, the study provides a very comprehensive summary of the backgrounds of all 250 MPs on 14 different variables (3,500 pieces of information). You can use the bespoke interactive visualization to interrogate the data and read the subsequent write up for a thorough discussion of the findings.

Syria's Constitutional Committee: The Devil in the Detail

Middle East Institute (Research Tool), Dr Karam Shaar and Ayman Dasouki, 06 Jan 2021

​This study investigates the composition of Syria's Constitutional Committee by examining the background information of each of its 150 members. For each member, Dr Karam Shaar and Ayman Dasouki examine the political affiliation, perceived closeness to the Syrian regime, gender, education, ethnicity, and religion, among other relevant variables. The findings are presented using an intuitive interactive visualization. They use their views on the composition of the Committee to predict the dynamics of its activities and to provide policy recommendations to boost its chances for success. The study is published in the Middle East Institute.

Syria's heads of state over the past century: An interactive research tool

Middle East Institute (Research Tool), Dr Karam Shaar and Samy Akil, 04 Nov 2020

​This study presents an interactive timeline to aid those interested in the background of Syria’s heads of state and how power has changed hands since 1922. Dr Karam Shaar and Sami Akil also use the timeline to draw insights into the ongoing 2011 conflict. They open by highlighting the longstanding asymmetries in the distribution of power, and later zoom in on the past half century of al-Assad family rule. They conclude with a look into the future. The study is published in the Middle East Institute as well.