Karam Shaar Advisory LTD

Israel’s Expanding Military Footprint in Syria: One Year On

Within hours of opposition fighters arriving in Damascus on 8 December 2024, Israeli military forces launched a large-scale ground operation into Syria, taking control of the 50-year-old demilitarized zone and advancing deeper into parts of western Daraa and Quneitra. In total, approximately 350 square kilometers of territory were captured, stretching from Mount Hermon in the north to a strip of Daraa’s Yarmouk Basin in the south. Over the same 48-hour period, Israeli fighter jets launched at least 350 airstrikes across Syria, targeting former regime military infrastructure. Hundreds more strikes followed through the remainder of December, with nearly 1,000 recorded in total as of 8 December 2025.

In 2025, having consolidated control over this expanded “buffer zone,” Israeli military forces launched hundreds of ground incursions into Syria, according to data collected by Syria Weekly. At least nine Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bases have also been established and constructed inside newly occupied Syrian territories (see map below).

Initially, Israeli ground incursions into southwestern Syria involved the destruction of former Assad regime military bases and posts, followed by the construction of new military infrastructure. These operations included the laying of minefields, the seizing and demolishing of homes, the forcible displacement of civilians, and the clearing of agricultural land and forested areas. This process has included the razing of more than 110 acres of the historic Jubata al-Khashab forest, as well as the depopulation of and restrictions on local Syrian access to vast stretches of agricultural land. Farmers and herders who have attempted to enter or use their land within sight of Israeli lines of control have frequently been subjected to live fire. In a profoundly rural region, the local agricultural sector has been crippled.

Since June 2025, an average of 17.5 Israeli ground incursions have been conducted each week. These incursions typically involve armored patrols through populated areas, followed by the establishment of temporary checkpoints on main roads, where all passing Syrian civilians are stopped, searched, questioned, and have their phones examined. In some cases, biometric data is also collected. Incursions also routinely include military raids on residential buildings, commercial businesses and, at times, schools. Dozens of Syrian men have been extrajudicially detained by IDF forces and taken into Israeli territory for interrogation—often to be released in rural areas and left to find their way home a day or two later. At least a dozen men remain in Israeli detention, with their whereabouts unknown.

Throughout the past year, the Syrian government’s only response to Israel’s actions has been to issue public statements of condemnation through the Foreign Ministry and to file complaints with the United Nations. Although not acknowledged publicly, Syrian Interior Ministry officers stationed in Daraa maintain lines of communication with Israeli counterparts, and during periods of heightened tension, such communication has occurred at the ministerial level. Nevertheless, there is a significant risk that Israeli actions may ultimately prove self-fulfilling, whereby sustained measures taken against a non-existent threat could contribute to the emergence of a real one. 





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    Relatedly, two deadly exchanges have occurred in 2025, neither of which involved Syrian government personnel:

    • March 2025, Koya, Daraa: Seven local men were killed by IDF forces after resisting an incursion.
    • November 2025, Beit Jinn, Rural Damascus: Fourteen people were killed after several local men resisted an IDF raid.

    Following months of US mediation, several rounds of direct Syria–Israel talks involving Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and then-Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer collapsed in late September. In the ensuing vacuum, Israel has sharply intensified its military activities in Syria, conducting nearly 200 incursions in November and December—almost doubling the average monthly rate seen earlier in the year. This record-high level of incursions, in addition to an escalation in air and artillery strikes, appeared to function as a pressure tactic aimed at inducing concessions from the Syrian government. Direct talks resumed on 5 January following a personal request from US President Donald Trump.

    For now, US mediation efforts have focused on reaching a security agreement between Syria and Israel—one that guarantees Israeli security concerns, brings an end to Israeli military operations inside Syria, and creates the confidence necessary to induce an eventual Israeli withdrawal from territory occupied since 8 December 2024. For its part, Israel continues to demand the “demilitarization” of southern Syria, which—depending on the outcome of negotiations—may permit the presence of Syrian Interior Ministry personnel. Israel also insists on retaining all positions on Mount Hermon.

    Having staked a significant claim on the success of Syria’s transition, US President Trump and his administration have sought to de-escalate Israel–Syria tensions and facilitate talks toward a negotiated outcome. The intensification of Israeli ground incursions through November, combined with the killing of 14 people in Beit Jinn on 28 November, has triggered renewed efforts by the US military, senior Trump administration officials, and President Trump himself to signal frustration with Israel. 

    While direct talks have resumed and Israel’s negotiating team has been reshaped to be led by figures more publicly open to agreements with Syria, it remains hard to envision an Israeli withdrawal from territory in which it now operates at least nine military bases. With Israel’s new ultra-orthodox Hashmonaim Brigade newly deployed to occupied areas of Syria and revelations emerging of continued Israeli assistance to Druze militias in As-Suwayda and recent visits by Assad regime figures to Israel, the wider tensions that define the challenges laid out in this article look as deeply entrenched as ever.

     
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