ISIS in Syria Is Degraded, But Not Yet Eradicated

By: Charles Lister  

As Syria seeks to position itself as a solution to the world’s supply chain concerns and desire to reduce overreliance on the Straits of Hormuz, the security conditions across Syria have markedly improved. In fact, for 10 weeks in a row, Syria has recorded its lowest levels of deadly violence in 15 years. One factor that has contributed to this trend of stabilization is a substantial decline in attacks by ISIS, with the group responsible for just 8 attacks and 4 deaths in May 2026. This marks a dramatic collapse in operational tempo compared to 2024 and 2025. 

While it is too early to rule out an ISIS rejuvenation, these are encouraging early signs that appear to have been catalyzed by the removal of the group’s two most potent drivers (Assad’s regime and rule by the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria’s northeast), as well as the emergence of a new government widely perceived to represent the interests of communities that ISIS would otherwise seek to prey upon, while also promising global integration and recovery. 

However, when squeezed into a corner, ISIS will seek to adapt. In February 2026, the group’s global spokesman, Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, called for attacks on Syria’s government. ISIS’s best chance of recovering may lie in directing its ire on the government. Nevertheless, while that public declaration led to a brief 10-day increase in attacks, it has since been followed by a decline into nearly three months of near-record lows. What has remained of ISIS since has been geographically dispersed, with attacks limited to a handful of cells primarily in rural Aleppo, Idlib, and Deir ez Zour.

For potential investors, ensuring a stable and secure environment for business in Syria is vital, and the specter of ISIS terrorism remains at the top of the list of investment concerns. The group’s extremist ideology believes in sowing chaos, division, and violence, and foreign entities would be highly attractive targets. Should ISIS one day recover, its target set would inevitably expand to include Syria’s critical infrastructure – something it has notably avoided so far.

To ensure that ISIS remains weak, Syria must complete a successful integration of the SDF and the country’s Kurdish minority into the state, while continuing to take steps to achieve transitional justice and demonstrate accountability for crimes committed both before and after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Syria’s stability will depend upon these necessary steps, in tandem with the country’s economic recovery, the formation of a representative parliament, the initiation of a constitutional process, and more. 

On the security front, Syria will require support in the form of training, capacity building, and intelligence sharing from its new partners in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, including the US. And ultimately, Syria’s domestic counterterrorism resources – in the form of the Ministry of Interior (MoI) and General Intelligence Directorate – will need to sustain effective pressure on rooting out ISIS cells and support infrastructure. According to the MOI, a total of 235 ISIS suspects were detained between March and May 2026, with seven attacks foiled and 22 explosive devices seized. These figures indicate that ISIS’s operational capacity is drastically degrading, yet its threat is far from over.