Publications
Here we share all our published work, including peer-reviewed academic papers, policy papers, and op-eds.
Atlantic Council (Op-ed), Karam Shaar and William Christou (Dec 1, 2020)
On September 28, the Syrian government proposed theย 2021 budget, planned at 8.5 trillion Syrian pounds ($2.7 billion). The breakdown of the budget is still being debated in parliament. Due to the sharp depreciation of the Syrian pound and the accelerated slowdown in economic activity over the course of the current year, the 2021 budget is not only a 27 percent decrease compared to last year in inflation-adjusted (real) US dollar terms, but is also the smallest budget since the uprising in 2011. In this study with Will Christou, we provide a breakdown of Syria’s 2021 budget, revealing the depth of the country’s economic depletion.
Middle East Institute (Research Tool), Karam Shaar and Samy Akil (Nov 4, 2020)
This study presents an interactive timeline to aid those interested in the background of Syriaโs heads of state and how power has changed hands since 1922. We also use the timeline to draw insights into the ongoing 2011 conflict. We open by highlighting the longstanding asymmetries in the distribution of power, and later zoom in on the past half century of al-Assad family rule. We conclude with a look into the future. The study is published inย Middle East Instituteย as well.
Middle East Institute (Op-ed), Karam Shaar and William Christou (Oct 15, 2020)
On June 17, 2020, the U.S. State Departmentโs special envoy to Syria, Joel Rayburn, announced the beginning of the โsummer of Caesar,โ promising a wave of sanctions designations under the newly activated Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act. Summer has come and gone, but thereโs little to show for it.
Middle East Institute, Karam Shaar (Op-ed) (Jul 9, 2020)
To deal with the intensifying economic crisis, the Syrian regime has pursued various survival-mode mechanisms, like relying on financial support from Iran, spurring inflation-induced growth by printing money, and offering tempting corporate concessions to attract investment. Much to the countryโs detriment, Syriaโs economic situation has prompted the creation of a unique type of investment โ one where the announcement is the only part of the venture ever intended to take place. Such โphoto-op investmentsโ happen when both parties know, before signing the contract, that the project will never break ground.
Do I Support the US Sanctions on My Country?
Thoughts, Karam Shaar (Jul 27, 2020)
Thousands of pictures, leaked by a Syrian defector nicknamed โCaesar,โ revealed the extent of torture and extrajudicial killings in the prisons of the Bashar al-Assad regime. In response to those abuses, on June 17, 2020, the United States targeted that regime with sanctions under the Caesar Civilian Protection Act. The US set out a list of political and humanitarian demands to be met for the sanctions to be lifted.