Publications
Here we share all our published work, including peer-reviewed academic papers, policy papers, and op-eds.
Operations and Policy Center (OPC) and Middle East Institute (Policy Brief), Karam Shaar, Ashley Jordan and Samy Akil (Feb 22, 2022)
Despite the slowdown in military operations in Syria, other acts of violence and human rights violations remain the norm, making the whole-of-Syria unsafe for return. Published in collaboration with theย Middle East Institute, this summary recaps on a recently publishedย research projectย aimed at understanding the scale and types of violations experienced by Syrian returnees.
Carnegie Middle East – Sada, Karam Shaar (Op-ed) (Feb 15, 2022)
Respected Syria analysts have argued that โmore-for-moreโ diplomacy should not be attempted with Bashar al-Assad. In this op-ed for Carnegie Middle East’s Sada Journal, Dr Karam Shaar argues that, under four principles, more-for-more is warranted to jumpstart the deadlocked political process. This diplomacy cannot on its own, however, end the conflict. The key risk in taking the more-for-more approach to dealing with Assad is using it as a stepping stone for a face-saving end to the conflict. A resolution that does not address the root causes of the conflict is a recipe for perpetual instability.
Atlantic Council and Operations and Policy Center (OPC) (Policy Brief), Karam Shaar and Samy Akil (Feb 7, 2022)
Multiple questions were raised after the US Treasury in November 2021 eased restrictions on the distribution of “early recovery” aid in Syria. The easing came as an apparent concession to Russia, in exchange for allowing cross-border aid to continue flowing to northwest Syria. The Operations and Policy Center (OPC) and the Atlantic Council jointly published this policy brief in an attempt to answer three questions. 1) What is โearly recoveryโ aid and how is it different from reconstruction? 2) Who will benefit from the easing of restrictions? 3) What does this move say, if anything, about America’s approach to sanctions or its whole-of-Syria strategy?
Brookings Institution (op-ed), Karam Shaar and Steven Heydemann (Jan 24, 2022)
In this op-ed for The Brookings Institution, Prof. Steven Heydemann and Dr Karam Shaar call for abandoningย Syria’s constitutional committee. Undermined by the obstructionism of the Assad regime, the Geneva process for ending the Syrian conflict has become little more than zombie diplomacyโkept alive only because of an absence of alternatives and the reluctance of the US and EU to let go of the only negotiating framework accepted by all members of the UN Security Council. Narrowing the Geneva process to the matter of constitutional reform has also reduced it to an empty shell, a shadow of UNSC Resolution 2254. They argue that gains are to be made from abandoning the committee.
Operations and Policy Center (OPC) (Policy Brief), Karam Shaar and Nicholas Lyall (Dec 10, 2021)
In this publication in the Operations & Policy Center (OPC) and theย Middle East Institute, Nick Lyall and Dr Karam Shaar argue that Syria is headed toward a famine. In support of this view, they present three factors: The severity of the ongoing drought which is compounded by the water management policies of neighbouring Turkey; the unprecedented level of food insecurity compounded by the rise in global food prices, and the decline in donor humanitarian funding. They propose three policy responses to pre-empt the looming crisis.
