Publications
Here we share all our published work, including peer-reviewed academic papers, policy papers, and op-eds.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) (Research Paper), Karam Shaar, Munqeth Othman Agha and Natasha Hall (Oct 20, 2021)
It is common knowledge that the Syrian regime influences the distribution of aid in-country and benefits from various aid operations by nudging or coercing UN bodies into working with organizations and business cronies affiliated with it. In this publication, we show how the diversion of aid happens far more systemically and on a more serious scale before aid even enters the country. As the UN transfers money to Syria, large sums are lost due to the unfavorable exchange rate applied on the transfers; an exchange rate set by the Central Bank in Damascus. This study has been covered by hundreds of media outlets, including The Guardian, The Washington Post, The Associate Press, and BBC.
(Academic publication), with Sinan Hatahet (Aug 24, 2021)
Before the 2011 conflict, Syria’s electricity infrastructure was barely functional. There were high production and transmission losses resulting in frequent load shedding during the summer. However, after ten years of war the situation is markedly worse: per capita consumption of state electricity is now 15% of what it was in 2010. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Syria’s electricity sector after a decade of war. It first reviews: the sector’s pre-war organisational structure; production and consumption levels; its transmission grid; energy sources; and regional connectivity. The paper then assesses the impact of the conflict by tracking the 14 power plants through the war years: energy sources; production levels; and efficiency. It finally assesses damage to the sector and future prospects, with a focus on the role of the two countries with the greatest interest in rehabilitating the sector, Russia and Iran.
(Policy Paper), Karam Shaar and Wael al-Alwani (Aug 5, 2021)
The subject of Western sanctions on Syria is a divisive one among analysts and policymakers interested in ending the misery of the country’s citizens. The division comes at a time when, more than ever, the country needs a comprehensive policy that ends the agony of most Syrians. This study, published in the Middle East Institute, assesses the effectiveness of the sanctions imposed on the regime of Bashar al-Assad by conducting a comprehensive review of their history, the background of individuals targeted so far, evaluating the strengths and shortcomings in the current setup, and recommending ways to move forward.
Operations and Policy Center (Research Paper), Karam Shaar and Orwa Khalifa (Jun 22, 2021)
Syria’s regime-controlled areas witnessed several economic crises in late 2019 and 2020, leading to an exceptional deterioration in living standards. Operations and Policy Center (OPC) surveyed 600 respondents in three Damascus neighborhoods to assess Damascenes’ main economic activities: work, consumption, and spending.
The Economics of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Karam Shaar (Jun 18, 2021)
This study outlines how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is taking over Idlib’s economy since its transformation from the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda to the de facto authority in the area. While the takeover is incomplete, the extent to which it will continue is primarily determined by Turkey’s tolerance of the group. The study is co-published between the Operations & Policy Center (OPC) and the Middle East Institute.
