Karam Shaar Advisory LTD

Publications

Here we share all our published work, including peer-reviewed academic papers, policy papers, and op-eds.

Observatory of Political and Economic Networks and Omran for Strategic Studies (Special Report), Karam Shaar, Mohamad Orwani, Traci Lawrence, Baraa Khurfan, Muhsen Al-Mustafa, and Wael Al-Alwani (Sep 8, 2023)

This is the debut project from the Syria Sanctions Policy Program (SSPP). A new travel agency with offices in Damascus and Dubai recently announced direct flights from Damascus to European cities for the first time in over a decade. Our research reveals that the agency and its Greece-based “exclusive” partner airline are associated with drug kingpin Mahmoud Abdulilah al-Dj, who has been sentenced to death in Libya for drug trafficking. Al-Dj is also the exclusive agent of US-sanctioned Cham Wings in Libya, which has been accused of money-laundering throughout the Levant and transporting weapons and equipment for the Assad regime. We’re concerned that the Greek airline, Air Mediterranean, could wittingly or unwittingly be doing the same. The report highlights the need for enhanced monitoring of the activities of drug kingpins and the affiliates of the Assad regime. Among other recommendations, we call on the European Union (EU) to consider blocking Air Mediterranean from operating in EU airports.

Atlantic Council, Karam Shaar(Op-ed) (Aug 24, 2023)

The security, health, and geopolitical impacts of captagon’s proliferation in the Middle East have jolted many countries around the world into action. Both consumer and transit countries in the region are enhancing their interdiction capacities and considering the normalization of relations with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which controls areas where most captagon originates. The Biden administration has announced an interagency counter-captagon strategy and has imposed joint sanctions with the United Kingdom and European Union on Syrian and Lebanese actors involved in the industry. Additionally, Captagon has been included in the US-led Global Coalition to Address Synthetic Drug Threats. In this piece, Dr Karam Shaar argues that these responses are myopic, partial, and occasionally misguided. Instead, he advocates for comprehensive, long-term, and smart policies.

Observatory of Political and Economic Networks (Research Paper), Karam Shaar, Wael Alalwani, Mohammad Orwani and Dima Mohammad (Jun 14, 2023)

This report presents the most comprehensive attempt to date at understanding the breadth and nature of the ongoing narcotics crisis in the Middle East, by analyzing two bespoke databases: one compiling and classifying the 1,251 publicly reported drug seizures in Arab Asian countries between 2016 and 2022, and another mapping 712 individuals and entities involved in narcotics supply from Syria and Lebanon using primary and secondary sources. The report also estimates the profits generated by the industry and their political economy implications.

Newlines Institute (Research Paper), Karam Shaar and Caroline Rose (May 24, 2023)

Amphetamine-type stimulants, known as “captagon,” are flooding the Mediterranean-Gulf region, with a staggering 370 million pills seized in 2022 alone. The Syrian regime, led by Bashar al-Assad, is the primary sponsor of this drug trade, which adversely affects the health and security of consumer countries. This report presents the first comprehensive analysis of the regime’s narrative on narcotics, both domestically and internationally, comparing it with their actions on the ground. It examines 612 articles from the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) with “narcotics” in the title between 2015 and 2022, supplemented by data from Syria’s submissions to the United Nations Office on Drug and Crime (UNODC), statements from regime officials, and death sentences related to narcotics. Additionally, we analyze existing literature and reported seizure announcements, focusing on 2021 and 2022, where the seizing authority identifies the origin of captagon shipments.

Middle East Institute, Karam Shaar (Op-ed) (Mar 17, 2023)

On Monday, the EU will hold an international donors’ conference in Brussels to raise funds for Turkey and Syria’s recovery from the devastating earthquakes that struck in early February. While Turkey’s foreign minister will speak before the pledging session, no one will represent or even speak on behalf of Syrians. We hope this op-ed conveys the feelings of at least some Syrians to the donors before making their pledges.

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